#MarketTiming pure and simple — ETFs

Michael Petryni
7 min readDec 20, 2021

THE TRADING STRATEGY

Short-term swing trading: When the NYMO turns up, it is time to buy ETFs on the next open. When the NYMO turns down it is time to sell ETFs on the next open.

Longer-term swing trading: When the NYSI turns up it is time to buy ETFS on the next open. When the NYSI turns down, it is time to go to cash or to go short on the next open.

Almost all ETFs are set to move with the market, up or down. Best done with leverage.

Simple as that.

2/23/2022 — TQQQ

Swing trading TQQQ, the leveraged Nasdaq ETF, on the short side is up nearly 40% year to date.

That is to say, when the NYMO turns down short the ETF, and when the NYMO turns up, cover the short.

The white flags on the chart left and right axis below show the dollar/percentage gains for each $10,000 traded. The white flag on the left marks the closed trade while the white flag on the right axis shows the current trade (taken together, approximately 40%).

FYI: short results on this strategy do not consistently occur like this in bull markets.

2/3/2022 — End of the day…

With the turn down yesterday the NYMO gave a sell signal for today’s open ending the swing trade after four trading days.

On the leveraged ETFs (see the charts below) TQQQ cashed in a 4% gain; UPRO gained 6.4%; FNGU, up as much as 17% during the swing was slammed today by the catastrophic FB earnings news to finish with only a 1.3% gain; SOXL took a hit also, up nearly 27% on yesterday’s cashed in a 17.3% in the four-day swing (boo-hoo!).

The NYMO signal is now in cash (or short if any traders be so bold).

(The white flags on the chart’s right for the open trades and left axis for closed trades displays the dollars/percentage gain per each $10,000 traded. Click on the charts for a larger view.)

SIGNALS:

1/31/2022 — End of the day…

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Michael Petryni

Journalist, film critic, screenwriter, proprietary trader seeking simplicity in trading. https://thegodoftrading.medium.com/membership