Thinking out loud about the pure and simple #MarketTiming with the NYMO/NYSI and Stocks, ETFs
The stock market either goes up or goes down, taking its stocks and ETFs with it. And yet It is amazing how difficult it is to recognize that simplicity.
THE TRADING STRATEGY
Short-term swing trading: When the NYMO turns up, it is time to buy stocks on the next open. When the NYMO turns down it is time to sell stocks on the next open.
Longer-term swing trading: When the NYSI turns up it is time to buy stocks on the next open. When the NYSI turns down, it is time to go to cash or to go short on the next open.
Most stocks and ETFs move with the market.
Simple as that.
Okay, okay, everyone went short five trading days ago when the NYSI turned down, right?
Surely, since I’ve been preaching this here for at least a couple of years.
I bring this up only to stress, once again, to my mind, there is no better market-timing tools than the McClellan Oscillator (the NYMO) and its Summation Index (the NYSI).
One of my sons once suggested to me that I sell my market-timing signals for a lot of money.
I said I can’t do that. They are all so cut-and-dried, such simple buys and sells…Once anyone realizes they can do this themselves why would they pay me?
He replied: “You’re not selling signals, dad, you would be selling the reassurance the signals work. That is worth a lot, a lot, lot more than the signals themselves?
I had to laugh since I’m only do this for fun, and, needless to say, the benefit of all mankind.
“Sometimes they don’t work the way they are expected to work,” I said. And he reminded me I’ve always said “when the McClellans are doing what they are supposed to do, they are great, but when they are not working the way they’re supposed to, they are even greater.”
Even greater when they don’t work? Indeed.
For instance, when they are not working it is often a sign that something bigger in the market is going on — like an…